An Early Round of 2009 Predictions

Before the predictions a brief word about the election. I believe this country has a way of picking the leader it needs at times of major crisis. From Lincoln at a time of grave division to Roosevelt at a time of ultimate peril. I believe while it is too soon to compare this man to those historical figures, the selection of Obama is game changing and this country will be well served by his vision. Beyond the rational cause for celebration I find his selection to be enormously good for the countries morale.  This is good because if my predictions are correct we will need that boost and more to get through what we are facing.

And here are my 2009 predictions in no specific order:

1. The economic trouble we are facing will deepen in ways we don't yet understand. I suspect the dollar is going to collapse. The impact of that collapse will touch a broad swath of both the middle and upper classes.
2. Obama will have enourmous leeway to push major initiatives through and he will succeed in getting many of them implemented. My guess is that he will get major health care reform, a giant public works/infrastructure stimulus package and drastic environmental reform.
3. The government will likely have to step in and suspend all home foreclosures for 12-24 months, freeze repayment of student loans and one or two other unheard of federal controls to keep the downturn from accelerating.
4. The U.S. will be forced to speed up withdrawal from Iraq to bolster troops in Afghanistan.
5. The DOW will close out 2009 below 7,000. If I had to guess I would call 6,800 a distinct possibility.
   

Presidential Politics: The Lightning Round

After reading the text of the Charlie Gibson interview with Palin I think it probably helps the McCain folks out a little as it keeps her name above the fold going into another weekend.

To say things are moving rather fast would be an understatement. Since Tuesday we have seen pigs and fish. We have seen McCain accuse Obama of being essential a child abuser with the sex
ed fabrication/ad/riff. We have seen Obama show his cool on Letterman and have lunch with Bubba. The scariest part of the Clinton lunch was listening to Clinton predict that Obama would win. After the primary season please keep your political predictions to yourself. Bill Clinton seemed to get most of his Hillary predictions all wrong and I think we all know he is doing the Obama lunch thing to punch his "I did all I could!" ticket before he returns back to his offices in Harlem to sulk/brood.

Speaking of Bill and Hillary... I have noticed have you. Some of Clinton's old allies are doing background and not so background interviews expressing their Obama doubts. These are getting a ton of play on Drudge.

For Example:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6c2f69ce-8031-11dd-99a9-000077b07658.html


They essentially second guess/write the obit for the Obama campaign and if Obama wins I hope somebody in charge is feeling vengeful and excommunicates these dead enders to the back benches for 4-8 years minimum. In a just world that would happen. Of course if Obama loses and my application for Canadian citizenship falls through I never said any of this and please pass the Moose burgers. Yummy!

A September Morning

I was getting ready for work and the radio announcer broke in to say that the TV was showing one of the World Trade Center towers on fire. One report was indicating it might have been a small plane.

I remember how the weather in the Chicago area matched the weather in NY and Washington D.C. with the cloudless blue skies. I remember driving with my wife to work and hearing radio reports that kept escalating the bad news. I remember feeling my hair stand up on the back of my neck when I learned that the Pentagon was on fire and the false reports of other explosions near the State Department and the Capital. At one point the announcer (I believe it was Dan Rather simulcast on a local CBS station) said basically let's slow down here and take a breath. The events of that day didn't let us do that. I remember pulling into work and finding all of my co-workers watching TV.

Seven years later I think of how much has changed. The world is different now (two prolonged American wars) and I am different too (two beautiful children).

The stakes for me now with a family of my own have risen. The stakes for the world have risen too.

Political Thought of the Day

Both the Clinton and Obama supporters have a strong core of folks who have internalized (made their own) the two candidates messages. The Clinton base believes that Clinton is the rightful candidate and that those that impede her on her journey to the White House are either naive or misogynists. The Obama base (self included) believe that Obama embodies the nations hope for a unified "common sense" approach to politics. Those that would impede his journey to the White House are either clinging to the old politics that got us into this mess in the first place or on some level racists. Unifying these two bases is going to be tricky but I think it can be done. The upside of unification far exceeds the downside so here is hoping cooler heads prevail.