An Early Round of 2009 Predictions

Before the predictions a brief word about the election. I believe this country has a way of picking the leader it needs at times of major crisis. From Lincoln at a time of grave division to Roosevelt at a time of ultimate peril. I believe while it is too soon to compare this man to those historical figures, the selection of Obama is game changing and this country will be well served by his vision. Beyond the rational cause for celebration I find his selection to be enormously good for the countries morale.  This is good because if my predictions are correct we will need that boost and more to get through what we are facing.

And here are my 2009 predictions in no specific order:

1. The economic trouble we are facing will deepen in ways we don't yet understand. I suspect the dollar is going to collapse. The impact of that collapse will touch a broad swath of both the middle and upper classes.
2. Obama will have enourmous leeway to push major initiatives through and he will succeed in getting many of them implemented. My guess is that he will get major health care reform, a giant public works/infrastructure stimulus package and drastic environmental reform.
3. The government will likely have to step in and suspend all home foreclosures for 12-24 months, freeze repayment of student loans and one or two other unheard of federal controls to keep the downturn from accelerating.
4. The U.S. will be forced to speed up withdrawal from Iraq to bolster troops in Afghanistan.
5. The DOW will close out 2009 below 7,000. If I had to guess I would call 6,800 a distinct possibility.
   

Presidential Politics: The Lightning Round

After reading the text of the Charlie Gibson interview with Palin I think it probably helps the McCain folks out a little as it keeps her name above the fold going into another weekend.

To say things are moving rather fast would be an understatement. Since Tuesday we have seen pigs and fish. We have seen McCain accuse Obama of being essential a child abuser with the sex
ed fabrication/ad/riff. We have seen Obama show his cool on Letterman and have lunch with Bubba. The scariest part of the Clinton lunch was listening to Clinton predict that Obama would win. After the primary season please keep your political predictions to yourself. Bill Clinton seemed to get most of his Hillary predictions all wrong and I think we all know he is doing the Obama lunch thing to punch his "I did all I could!" ticket before he returns back to his offices in Harlem to sulk/brood.

Speaking of Bill and Hillary... I have noticed have you. Some of Clinton's old allies are doing background and not so background interviews expressing their Obama doubts. These are getting a ton of play on Drudge.

For Example:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6c2f69ce-8031-11dd-99a9-000077b07658.html


They essentially second guess/write the obit for the Obama campaign and if Obama wins I hope somebody in charge is feeling vengeful and excommunicates these dead enders to the back benches for 4-8 years minimum. In a just world that would happen. Of course if Obama loses and my application for Canadian citizenship falls through I never said any of this and please pass the Moose burgers. Yummy!

Some Additional Thoughts After The Republican Convention

With each passing day the stakes in this coming presidential election get higher. Whoever takes the office is going to find plenty to keep them busy. Lets list the problems and hope whoever wins has some good ideas.

• Rising Unemployment
• A Mortgage Crisis
• Rising National Debt/Deficit
• Declining Stock Market
• War in Iraq
• War in Afghanistan
• A Newly Antagonistic Russia
• Unaffordable Health Care
• Oil at $100+ a Barrel
  
• Declining Education System
  
• Damaged Environment (Another big chunk of ice broke loose a day ago.)
• Looming Threat of Terrorism
  

I mention all of this to say wake up America and get in the game but then this video sort of made my point for me.

Reaction to the Palin Speech at the Republican Convention

Palin is some sort of cross between Jesse Venture, Evita Peron and Archie Bunker. The unearned pious anger, the barely disguised racism, the chirpy 'you betcha' delivery. She is supposed to elicit this reaction in me and I suppose the equal and opposite reaction in the red states.

If this Palin ploy works in November, the political/cultural heart of this country has been gamed one to many times for my taste.

Regardless of the outcome I suspect that McCain will have the burden of knowing he introduced this strain of fascism into the American mainstream political waters.

New Job, New President... The Back To School Experience

When you leave school you imagine you are saying goodbye to so many experiences. At 38 it is clear to me that you are not so much saying goodbye to those school experiences as living them again and again in new settings. Take for example this new job I started. The first day at a new job is like heading off to a new school. Will the kids like me? Will the teacher (boss) be a jerk? As you get older maybe you get better at these experiences but regardless they keep on coming. Two weeks into this gig I find myself hoping I won't have too much "homework" and wondering if I will ever fit in with the other "kids" at work?

Presidential politics is not that far removed from the schoolyard either. Just ask McCain and Obama who have been having an epic popularity contest in the lunch room that is the modern media over the past week. Obama is all "I'm the new kid but I am cool." and McCain is all "He's the new kid you can't like him and I'm tough." It's a heck of a way to pick a president but such is life.

Political Thought of the Day

Both the Clinton and Obama supporters have a strong core of folks who have internalized (made their own) the two candidates messages. The Clinton base believes that Clinton is the rightful candidate and that those that impede her on her journey to the White House are either naive or misogynists. The Obama base (self included) believe that Obama embodies the nations hope for a unified "common sense" approach to politics. Those that would impede his journey to the White House are either clinging to the old politics that got us into this mess in the first place or on some level racists. Unifying these two bases is going to be tricky but I think it can be done. The upside of unification far exceeds the downside so here is hoping cooler heads prevail.