2008 is the culmination of a lot of hunches that I (and many others) have had for awhile now.
Hunch #1 I had a hunch when we (as a nation) reelected George W. Bush in 2004 that we had sealed our fate. You can get away with a mistake now and then but willfully reelecting the guy was asking for trouble. This year trouble came into the room and made himself at home. I don't think electing a good man for the presidency will clear trouble from the room either. I suspect it will take the better part of the next four years to convince trouble to go bug someone else.
Hunch #2 I remember years ago thinking out loud that the world economy was overdue for a deep recession (or worse) and that I suspected it would occur during my lifetime. Should I be grateful this is happening during my peek earning years and not when I am nearing retirement? Does it really matter since having the hunch does not mean I acted on it? I didn't buy gold and bury it the backyard. I didn't eliminate credit card debt or pay off my home mortgage in advance of the storm. It was in the end only a hunch. Most of my hunches don't pan out.
Hunch #3 I thought the odds were pretty good that the Illinois Governor was going to court. Having lived in Illinois I suspect I was not alone in having that hunch. It's kind of a tradition here.
Hunch #4 More than 20 years ago I listened to my 5th grade elementary school teacher (in 80' - 81') sketch out this whole global warming thing and it made sense then. It has been making sense for decades, not months or years, and our leaders have turned a blind eye towards it for most of that time. My hunch here has been (and will continue to be) that we will not seriously attempt to turn down the global heat on global warming until the urban centers of major Western nations starts taking on water from ice melt. It will of course be too late to reverse the worst effects by then but that is just how we humans roll.
Hunch #5 (Final Hunch) I have suspected that new media was going to claim some old media victims and I think that the days of reckoning are upon us. Unlike some I don't fear what comes next. The daily newspapers and big network television news divisions have long since stopped delivering substantial cultural contributions. Something new will form and eventually it will be 60% positive and 40% negative like the newspapers and major networks used to be. Of course, in the interim period something terrible could emerge to fill the vacuum... in which case I will fear what comes next but I can only handle a couple of global calamities at a time and this one is still hypothetical.
A sampling of some of my failed hunches:
Hunch #1 I had a hunch when we (as a nation) reelected George W. Bush in 2004 that we had sealed our fate. You can get away with a mistake now and then but willfully reelecting the guy was asking for trouble. This year trouble came into the room and made himself at home. I don't think electing a good man for the presidency will clear trouble from the room either. I suspect it will take the better part of the next four years to convince trouble to go bug someone else.
Hunch #2 I remember years ago thinking out loud that the world economy was overdue for a deep recession (or worse) and that I suspected it would occur during my lifetime. Should I be grateful this is happening during my peek earning years and not when I am nearing retirement? Does it really matter since having the hunch does not mean I acted on it? I didn't buy gold and bury it the backyard. I didn't eliminate credit card debt or pay off my home mortgage in advance of the storm. It was in the end only a hunch. Most of my hunches don't pan out.
Hunch #3 I thought the odds were pretty good that the Illinois Governor was going to court. Having lived in Illinois I suspect I was not alone in having that hunch. It's kind of a tradition here.
Hunch #4 More than 20 years ago I listened to my 5th grade elementary school teacher (in 80' - 81') sketch out this whole global warming thing and it made sense then. It has been making sense for decades, not months or years, and our leaders have turned a blind eye towards it for most of that time. My hunch here has been (and will continue to be) that we will not seriously attempt to turn down the global heat on global warming until the urban centers of major Western nations starts taking on water from ice melt. It will of course be too late to reverse the worst effects by then but that is just how we humans roll.
Hunch #5 (Final Hunch) I have suspected that new media was going to claim some old media victims and I think that the days of reckoning are upon us. Unlike some I don't fear what comes next. The daily newspapers and big network television news divisions have long since stopped delivering substantial cultural contributions. Something new will form and eventually it will be 60% positive and 40% negative like the newspapers and major networks used to be. Of course, in the interim period something terrible could emerge to fill the vacuum... in which case I will fear what comes next but I can only handle a couple of global calamities at a time and this one is still hypothetical.
A sampling of some of my failed hunches:
- I thought David Lee Roth could sustain his solo career.
- I thought bottled water was a silly idea with no potential.
- I thought online stores would kill off brick and mortar stores. (The jury is still out on that one.)
- I thought telecommuting would become much more popular than it has so far.
- I thought that cable channels dedicated to narrow niches like food, golf and the home would quickly fail.
