Hunches

2008 is the culmination of a lot of hunches that I (and many others) have had for awhile now. 

Hunch #1 I had a hunch when we (as a nation) reelected George W. Bush in 2004 that we had sealed our fate.  You can get away with a mistake now and then but willfully reelecting the guy was asking for trouble.  This year trouble came into the room and made himself at home.  I don't think electing a good man for the presidency will clear trouble from the room either.  I suspect it will take the better part of the next four years to convince trouble to go bug someone else. 

Hunch #2 I remember years ago thinking out loud that the world economy was overdue for a deep recession (or worse) and that I suspected it would occur during my lifetime.  Should I be grateful this is happening during my peek earning years and not when I am nearing retirement?  Does it really matter since having the hunch does not mean I acted on it?  I didn't buy gold and bury it the backyard.  I didn't eliminate credit card debt or pay off my home mortgage in advance of the storm.  It was in the end only a hunch.  Most of my hunches don't pan out.

Hunch #3 I thought the odds were pretty good that the Illinois Governor was going to court.  Having lived in Illinois I suspect I was not alone in having that hunch.  It's kind of a tradition here.

Hunch #4 More than 20 years ago I listened to my 5th grade elementary school teacher (in 80' - 81') sketch out this whole global warming thing and it made sense then.  It has been making sense for decades, not months or years, and our leaders have turned a blind eye towards it for most of that time.  My hunch here has been (and will continue to be) that we will not seriously attempt to turn down the global heat on global warming until the urban centers of major Western nations starts taking on water from ice melt.  It will of course be too late to reverse the worst effects by then but that is just how we humans roll.

Hunch #5 (Final Hunch) I have suspected that new media was going to claim some old media victims and I think that the days of reckoning are upon us.  Unlike some I don't fear what comes next.  The daily newspapers and big network television news divisions have long since stopped delivering substantial cultural contributions.  Something new will form and eventually it will be 60% positive and 40% negative like the newspapers and major networks used to be.  Of course, in the interim period something terrible could emerge to fill the vacuum... in which case I will fear what comes next but I can only handle a couple of global calamities at a time and this one is still hypothetical.

A sampling of some of my failed hunches:

• I thought David Lee Roth could sustain his solo career.
• I thought bottled water was a silly idea with no potential.
• I thought online stores would kill off brick and mortar stores. (The jury is still out on that one.)
• I thought telecommuting would become much more popular than it has so far.
• I thought that cable channels dedicated to narrow niches like food, golf and the home would quickly fail.

An Argument for Public Transportation

An Early Round of 2009 Predictions

Before the predictions a brief word about the election. I believe this country has a way of picking the leader it needs at times of major crisis. From Lincoln at a time of grave division to Roosevelt at a time of ultimate peril. I believe while it is too soon to compare this man to those historical figures, the selection of Obama is game changing and this country will be well served by his vision. Beyond the rational cause for celebration I find his selection to be enormously good for the countries morale.  This is good because if my predictions are correct we will need that boost and more to get through what we are facing.

And here are my 2009 predictions in no specific order:

1. The economic trouble we are facing will deepen in ways we don't yet understand. I suspect the dollar is going to collapse. The impact of that collapse will touch a broad swath of both the middle and upper classes.
2. Obama will have enourmous leeway to push major initiatives through and he will succeed in getting many of them implemented. My guess is that he will get major health care reform, a giant public works/infrastructure stimulus package and drastic environmental reform.
3. The government will likely have to step in and suspend all home foreclosures for 12-24 months, freeze repayment of student loans and one or two other unheard of federal controls to keep the downturn from accelerating.
4. The U.S. will be forced to speed up withdrawal from Iraq to bolster troops in Afghanistan.
5. The DOW will close out 2009 below 7,000. If I had to guess I would call 6,800 a distinct possibility.
   

Election Fatigue?

Type the phrase "election fatigue" into Google and you get 1.92 million hits. I hear talk of election fatigue but I can't join in on this particular meme. The candidates are likely exhausted after months and months of endless travel and speechifying but as a citizen I have been waiting my entire adult life for the opportunity to cast a consequential vote for a leader that inspires.

When this election cycle ends and our electoral choices return to the mediocre vs. the crass, most of us will long for an election cycle like this one. This campaign has been so riveting and important that it didn't just wear out the candidates but apparently some of the citizens as well. As for me, I have cast votes for candidates like Dukakis, so having an election like this has been phenomenal. I'm not tired, I am hungry for more.

America Cares

I am never again going to listen to news commentators that tell me that we are an apathetic nation. That the young, the poor and the middle class can't be bothered to vote.

I stood in line this past Thursday for 2 hours with some young folks, poor folks and middle class folks to cast my vote early. The line moved slowly as some of the older voters struggled to master the touch screen ballot and because of the limited number of machines. Regardless the people in the long line that snaked through the Parks and Rec building stayed put and made small talk with their neighbors. They weren't talking politics or calling each other un-American either.

It turns out that in order to get this sort of response you need several things to happen. You need a remarkable candidate that bothers to talk to the young, the poor and the middle class the same way when the camera is turned on or off. Then you need a situation where the stakes are not manufactured (made up issues: flag burning, Willie Horton, swift boats, etc.) but instead real (involvement in 2 wars, tanking economy, damaged ecology, broken health care system, etc.).

It helps if you put the citizens through 8 years of broken promises, pointless fear and diminished opportunity.

Rock the Vote Indeed!

Lost?

As a fan of the television show "Lost" I wonder if the show will adapt to the changing times. The show was so perfect for America in 2004 coming as it did on the heels of September 11th. It opened with the cast and by proxy the audience being put threw a horrific plane crash. They arrive on an island searching for a leader and scared of the darkness that surrounds them. If that sounds eerily familiar it might have something to do with the last 6 years of the Bush presidency. Not to get all political but if the election next week goes the way I hope it does, we will in a sense be less lost. Most of us will be no less concerned by the state of the world but suddenly reassured that an adult has taken the wheel.

I will still watch the show and it will no doubt continue to dazzle me but I suspect on some level I will feel a little less connected to the characters. A little less lost.

It Gets Worse Before It Gets Better... Redux

I had an odd experience today at work and I thought I would share it.

I was at my client company sitting in my guest cube working on something.  My guest cube sits in a vast cube farm filled with admins, marketing managers, directors, VP's and SR VP's.  Anyway around 3:30 pm I hear audible (break my concentration) groans from one aisle over.  On the aisle on the other side of me I hear a middle aged man saying loudly that he's "going to go downstairs and get ice cream who's coming."  No it wasn't an overworked drone or Jerry Maguire declaring his independence from the man.  It was a forty or fifty something VP and he was not talking about his work.  "I've had it" he said.  A co-worker proceeded to join him.  As they walked away they were talking loudly with disgust about the stock market.  In a cube next to mine some twenty somethings in a more conversational tone said that the market is tanking again.  "Do you think China is laughing?" says one.  "Nope their next." says the other.  Within 5 minutes it seemed like most of the floor was talking in water cooler fashion about the stock market and its nose dive.  Confusion and not a little fear seemed to be the subtext of these discussions.  I am not sure if the VP's outburst triggered this socializing, but I definitely had the sense that everyone was checking their 401k every fifteen minutes and the pressure was building all afternoon.  In some ways the spontaneous communal commiserating had echoes of 9/11.  On an ordinary day, on a floor where the big shots and the worker bees sit together these sorts of spontaneous outbursts of shared anxiety are not typical.

Since my last post the market is down several thousand points and many major banks have folded or been acquired on the cheap.

So now I ask... does it get worse before it gets better?
I hope not.

It Gets Worse Before It Gets Better

I have been watching the US economy unravel before my eyes for the past few weeks and the question that keeps coming up is:

What is the worst that can happen?

Sadly nobody knows. Those in power were not on the scene during the Great Depression and even if they were a new calamity seldom behaves like the last one. What does an economic crash look like when the economy is no longer primarily agricultural? What does a fully networked populace do when companies start falling like dominoes? In the 1920's one could raise chickens and grow food to survive the hard times but a suburban and urban America several generations removed from that kind of self-reliance will have an entirely different response. What might that response look like? I hope we never have to find out.

Presidential Politics: The Lightning Round

After reading the text of the Charlie Gibson interview with Palin I think it probably helps the McCain folks out a little as it keeps her name above the fold going into another weekend.

To say things are moving rather fast would be an understatement. Since Tuesday we have seen pigs and fish. We have seen McCain accuse Obama of being essential a child abuser with the sex
ed fabrication/ad/riff. We have seen Obama show his cool on Letterman and have lunch with Bubba. The scariest part of the Clinton lunch was listening to Clinton predict that Obama would win. After the primary season please keep your political predictions to yourself. Bill Clinton seemed to get most of his Hillary predictions all wrong and I think we all know he is doing the Obama lunch thing to punch his "I did all I could!" ticket before he returns back to his offices in Harlem to sulk/brood.

Speaking of Bill and Hillary... I have noticed have you. Some of Clinton's old allies are doing background and not so background interviews expressing their Obama doubts. These are getting a ton of play on Drudge.

For Example:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6c2f69ce-8031-11dd-99a9-000077b07658.html


They essentially second guess/write the obit for the Obama campaign and if Obama wins I hope somebody in charge is feeling vengeful and excommunicates these dead enders to the back benches for 4-8 years minimum. In a just world that would happen. Of course if Obama loses and my application for Canadian citizenship falls through I never said any of this and please pass the Moose burgers. Yummy!

A September Morning

I was getting ready for work and the radio announcer broke in to say that the TV was showing one of the World Trade Center towers on fire. One report was indicating it might have been a small plane.

I remember how the weather in the Chicago area matched the weather in NY and Washington D.C. with the cloudless blue skies. I remember driving with my wife to work and hearing radio reports that kept escalating the bad news. I remember feeling my hair stand up on the back of my neck when I learned that the Pentagon was on fire and the false reports of other explosions near the State Department and the Capital. At one point the announcer (I believe it was Dan Rather simulcast on a local CBS station) said basically let's slow down here and take a breath. The events of that day didn't let us do that. I remember pulling into work and finding all of my co-workers watching TV.

Seven years later I think of how much has changed. The world is different now (two prolonged American wars) and I am different too (two beautiful children).

The stakes for me now with a family of my own have risen. The stakes for the world have risen too.

Some Additional Thoughts After The Republican Convention

With each passing day the stakes in this coming presidential election get higher. Whoever takes the office is going to find plenty to keep them busy. Lets list the problems and hope whoever wins has some good ideas.

• Rising Unemployment
• A Mortgage Crisis
• Rising National Debt/Deficit
• Declining Stock Market
• War in Iraq
• War in Afghanistan
• A Newly Antagonistic Russia
• Unaffordable Health Care
• Oil at $100+ a Barrel
  
• Declining Education System
  
• Damaged Environment (Another big chunk of ice broke loose a day ago.)
• Looming Threat of Terrorism
  

I mention all of this to say wake up America and get in the game but then this video sort of made my point for me.

Reaction to the Palin Speech at the Republican Convention

Palin is some sort of cross between Jesse Venture, Evita Peron and Archie Bunker. The unearned pious anger, the barely disguised racism, the chirpy 'you betcha' delivery. She is supposed to elicit this reaction in me and I suppose the equal and opposite reaction in the red states.

If this Palin ploy works in November, the political/cultural heart of this country has been gamed one to many times for my taste.

Regardless of the outcome I suspect that McCain will have the burden of knowing he introduced this strain of fascism into the American mainstream political waters.

The Morning After: The Obama Democratic Convention Speech

The speech lived up to my expectations. It was a more partisan or blue state focused speech than his primary speeches, but that
is what you do at your parties convention. My favorite moments are the
ones where he directly addressed the McCain/Rove fear nonsense. He
didn't look rattled by their weeks of non-stop attacks. He seemed
energized (fired up?) by the task at hand. The contrast of his energy
and quiet confidence with the nervous/awkward/grumpy energy of McCain at
the Republican convention will be interesting for the country to behold. May the best man win.

A Genius Poster: "Those Were The Droids You Were Looking For"

Seasons Change

In the Chicago area the seasons change. This is a good thing. I like to look forward to the first snow or the first warm Spring day. This morning I awoke to a chilly house for the first time since probably May and that is a little preview of what is to come in September. This week is back to school week too so the Summer is all but over and thoughts now turn to school buses and (dare I say it) Halloween decorations. Oh and the new Fall TV season. A season that this year will be supported by a brand new Tivo HD. I have been testing it out now for about 2 weeks and (excluding the Comcast piece of the puzzle) the experience has been extremely positive. I will write up my review in the days to come.

Luke, Han, Chewie: Star Wars Tribute in an Office Building

Vimeo Tribute: Star Wars from Casey D on Vimeo.

Chocolate Rain

Picture 031, originally uploaded by Maxo.

TIVO Upgrade:

I've finally decided to take the plunge and upgrade our Series 2.0 Tivo to a Tivo HD. Watch this space for a review in the next week or two.

Remember That Texas UFO Flap From January? The radar tapes are in and...

Something indeed was moving about in the sky. A hat tip to the Wonkette Blog for this story. Researchers have acquired the radar tapes from the date in question. The same radar reliably used to safely manage air traffic around the world everyday confirms what the Texas locals were saying. An unknown object (UFO) moved as slow as 49 mph and as fast as 2,100 mph through Texas airspace. And military traffic was in the area too.

Don't look for any follow-up from the big media but do read the MUFON report (PDF) because it is rather interesting. A large, unidentified, radar and visually confirmed something was heading towards the President of the United States Texas ranch. Does that mean it was little green men? Nope. It means something we can't explain happened and our response to that should be more interest not less. Something tells me the media will just move on for fear of being painted as part of the lunatic fringe but what if instead they started asking questions. I won't hold my breath but that would be nice.

New Job, New President... The Back To School Experience

When you leave school you imagine you are saying goodbye to so many experiences. At 38 it is clear to me that you are not so much saying goodbye to those school experiences as living them again and again in new settings. Take for example this new job I started. The first day at a new job is like heading off to a new school. Will the kids like me? Will the teacher (boss) be a jerk? As you get older maybe you get better at these experiences but regardless they keep on coming. Two weeks into this gig I find myself hoping I won't have too much "homework" and wondering if I will ever fit in with the other "kids" at work?

Presidential politics is not that far removed from the schoolyard either. Just ask McCain and Obama who have been having an epic popularity contest in the lunch room that is the modern media over the past week. Obama is all "I'm the new kid but I am cool." and McCain is all "He's the new kid you can't like him and I'm tough." It's a heck of a way to pick a president but such is life.

A Storm Rolls In

IMG_2867, originally uploaded by Maxo.

This storm roared through the Chicago metro area in early July and I had to move quickly to capture the leading edge. No hail but lots of rain and wind.

George Lucas in Carbonite

George Lucas in Carbonite, originally uploaded by Official Star Wars Blog.

The Pause That Refreshes

As someone who fell hook, line and sinker for the Obama vs. Clinton political showdown this late Winter/early Spring I have been enjoying a bit of a Summer break from the political to and fro. As Fall quickly approaches I am ready to refocus on the Obama vs. McCain fight and root for Obama. In honor of the coming fight three Obama videos to get you fired up.

Barack Speaks To HQ Staff & Volunteers

Daily Show's Take on Obama Winning Democratic Nomination

Obama Victory Speech in South Carolina

Net Neutrality Explained in 4 Painless Minutes

Be Careful

lightning strike on camera, originally uploaded by SLOWLORIS.

Lightning doesn't just strike trees and golfers. I didn't see anything in the seconds leading up to the lightning strike in this clip that would have made me put down the camera and head for shelter. Going forward... I think I will take my storm pictures from behind glass inside a house or inside a car.

Who's Hungry?

This map of where the husky folks live is interesting but I would like to see an overlay of where the older people live. Generally the older we get the heavier we become so any states that skew young and skew heavy would be notable. Excellent candidates for Jenny Craig outlets and Krispy Kreme emporiums.

Via:Strange Maps

Making Money on the Web Is Not Rocket Surgery

A Great Talk By David Heinemeier Hansson from 37signals cuts through a ton of the bull and explains in a no hype fashion how to make a profitable startup company. Take notes... I know I did.

Stormy Saturday in Chicagoland

Picture 068, originally uploaded by Maxo.

The picture is from a few years back but the weather today is comparable. One minute the sun is out and the next minute the rain is pouring down.

A Useful Gas Mileage Tool

How to Save Money on Gas, Without Driving Less

Follow the above link to learn how much money driving 5 or 10 mph slower saves you in the long run. Very interesting.

World Cement Production Isn't Usually Interesting But...

Take a look at how much cement China is using relative to everybody else and behold a giant economy getting bigger.

Air Travel Doesn't Have To Be Unpleasant... You Can Lip Dub

Rocket Man Lip Dub from Underground Planet on Vimeo.

I Wish All of My Post College Roomates Were This Low Impact

Homeless Woman Lived Unnoticed in Man's Closet For Year - msnbc.com

"The woman told police she had no place to live and first sneaked into the man’s house about a year ago when he left it unlocked."

Your Day is Bad, But it Probably Could Get Worse

Daily Herald 5/24/08

Niles man backs over squad car after getting ticketed

This Humble Grill...

IMG_2427, originally uploaded by Maxo.

still has what it takes. I tried a new to me technique. I put the steaks into a 250 degree oven for 20-30 minutes and then put them on the grill. Hat Tip to America's Test Kitchen for that technique because it works like a charm.

Political Thought of the Day

Both the Clinton and Obama supporters have a strong core of folks who have internalized (made their own) the two candidates messages. The Clinton base believes that Clinton is the rightful candidate and that those that impede her on her journey to the White House are either naive or misogynists. The Obama base (self included) believe that Obama embodies the nations hope for a unified "common sense" approach to politics. Those that would impede his journey to the White House are either clinging to the old politics that got us into this mess in the first place or on some level racists. Unifying these two bases is going to be tricky but I think it can be done. The upside of unification far exceeds the downside so here is hoping cooler heads prevail.

In The Case Of Indy... If Ebert Likes It I Probably WIll Too

Roger Ebert Reviews: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (3.5 Stars)

Some Perspective

In times of stress love trumps fear every time.

In Rubble, Couple Clung to Each Other, and to Life - New York Times

Quote That Sticks:

"They had to take turns breathing. When Ms. Li took a deep breath, her chest expanding, Mr. Wang held his breath."

Rainy Days and Mondays....

, originally uploaded by maggot.

Shoe Still Life Photography

IMG_2275
Originally uploaded by Maxo

Are All The Candidates Having This Kind of Impact?

My Robot Snake is Cooler Than Your Robot Mule

Vegas on My Mind

And now for no good reason I present:

The Las Vegas hotels I have stayed at since 1996.

• Circus Circus 96'
• MGM Grand 97'
• Mandalay Bay 98'
• Mandalay Bay 99'
• Monte Carlo 00'
• New York New York 01'
• Venetian 04'

Doom and Gloom?

I am generally optimistic but reading this mornings headlines one can't help but wonder if the U.S./World economy isn't overdue for a giant "correction." That's economist doublespeak for a major recession or perhaps even depression.

The current class of know it alls have never known a time of true global economic hardship. What a shock the current generation of big shots might face if one morning they/we woke up and the readily available credit they/we take for granted simply wasn't there any longer.

I hope that scenario is an artifact of a gloomy Monday morning and not a tale of what is to come.

Obama 08'

Not many politician are thoughtfully addressing any issue this charismatically.

Some Reasons for Optimism

Today we hit 60 degrees after a long, cold and snowy winter.
The Superdelgates seem to be breaking for Obama.
A new Indiana Jones movie is only a few short months away.

16 Gig Ipod Touch Review

What can I add that hasn't been already said about the Apple Ipod Touch.
The interface (touch keypad included) works better than I expected and I expected quite a bit. The screen is beautiful. The web browser is excellent if still a wee bit slower than a desktop/laptop in response time.

Ultimately, this thing feels like the future. I find myself poking the screen on my two year old Samsung slider cellphone expecting all my portable devices to function so intuitively.

The paving stones leading toward ubiquitous computing continue to be laid with I think only two fundamental pieces missing.

1. A single broadband provider that offers seamless wired and wireless service for a single reasonable fee (<$50).

2. Portable device power/battery life that is counted in days/weeks instead of minutes/hours.

If I had to guess I would say those remaining pieces will be widely available in the next two years.

Reflecting on Super Tuesday Results

Overall: This is about where the delegates were supposed to land. I think things are in place for Obama going forward.

The web coverage is fairly spot on but last night the TV talking heads didn't seem to get it. They focused on the win/ no win for the states like MA and CA instead of the delegate count which is the point. Drives me a little crazy actually. How is it that I can understand the proportional delegate thing and the brain trust at MSNBC can not?

Not Obama's best post election speech. Still fine, just not his best work. It felt like he rushed his preparation or the multi-state campaigning took him off his stride just a touch.

The Hillary speech was a transparent crib of prior Obama lines and she is trying to change up her delivery style to match his but it's not working.

With the MA and CA wins Hillary did well enough though to keep her funding going for now.

Now let's see how the next few days play out.

Blended Blur Endorses Obama

Winter Time Blues

It strikes me that the Eddie Cochran song that says their "ain't (sic) no cure for the summertime blues" was probably not written from the vantage point of Chicago in late January. As therapy for this mid-winter malaise I will now change my desktop wallpaper to a some random beach scene from Flickr and spend a few moments browsing gardening catalogs.

Calamari For Two?

I love calamari but seriously this startling image is almost enough to turn me vegan.

Image Courtesy of Pink Tentacle.

Cloverfield Review

It's been three days since seeing Cloverfield and here are my thoughts.

The shaky camera thing is both a blessing and a curse. It drives a sense of authenticity AND nausea. I (a first person shooter gamer) generally do alright with fast camera moves, but even I found my stomach churning during some portions of the film. My wife had to look away for minutes at a time to keep her popcorn in her stomach. That said, I found the constantly moving camera really did help to up the sense of realism. The ever moving camera pays dividends when Hud (the camera holder) is surprised by a stream of military troops marching up the street with all their weapons blazing. His point of view drifts from trying to take in the soldiers, to focusing on his friends and back again. His mounting sense of confusions and fear is palpable.

While I can understand how it might effect those from NY and Washington D.C., the use of 9/11 imagery in the film doesn't bother me at all. I think as a country we are still working out what we took in on that fateful day. Well made movies that visually reference 9/11 aren't so much exploiting our memories as providing another opportunity for us to reflect on the horror from the more comfortable distance of a Hollywood movie.

My strongest critique of the film centers on the relative lack of inspired character development and the less than stellar script. Imagine this film with a linguistic punch of authenticity that was able to match the visuals and you would of had a nearly perfect film. As it stands it is still a remarkable night at the movies, which is more than can be said for the likes of The Bucket List.

A Scandal Gets A Name

A currently unnamed scandal (Note: Scandal without a catchy name = scandals nobody knows about) involves accusations of extremely senior U.S. officials selling nuclear secrets to dangerous foreign players and a reported F.B.I. cover-up.

Some scandals get a lot of play in the MSM (Lewinsky, Whitewater, Valerie Plame) and some do not. Let's see how much coverage the scandal gets in the U.S. media. I suspect they won't get around to focusing on this London Times Online article and their follow-up story either. The world press on the other hand will follow along and that might hurt our credibility on the whole non-proliferation/Iran thing.

Oh, and for good measure we have the voice of Mr. Burns from The Simpsons weighting in on the non-coverage of the "Nuke-Gate" scandal. (Mark this portion of the post as my first feeble attempt to brand the scandal.)

It goes without saying that this whole thing probably won't be raised during the presidential debates.

What Should We Name This Recession?

After looking at this Optimism Index chart I am left wondering what we should name this recession?

Suggestions: The Bubble 2.0, Mortgage Malaise, Foreclosure Fest...

Optimism Index: Company vs. CFO Optimism Index Optimism Index: US economy - Swivel

Getting Better All The Time

An expert shows how Third World conditions are getting better using a powerful data visualization tool that I wish came with Microsoft Office.

The Center for Graphic Facilitation: Debunking 3rd World Myths with Animated Statistics

What state has the most fortune 500 companies?

Glad you asked.

Number of Fortune 500 by State - Swivel

Re-Enactment: The Big Lebowski (Like the Original - Not Work Safe)