Hunches

2008 is the culmination of a lot of hunches that I (and many others) have had for awhile now. 

Hunch #1 I had a hunch when we (as a nation) reelected George W. Bush in 2004 that we had sealed our fate.  You can get away with a mistake now and then but willfully reelecting the guy was asking for trouble.  This year trouble came into the room and made himself at home.  I don't think electing a good man for the presidency will clear trouble from the room either.  I suspect it will take the better part of the next four years to convince trouble to go bug someone else. 

Hunch #2 I remember years ago thinking out loud that the world economy was overdue for a deep recession (or worse) and that I suspected it would occur during my lifetime.  Should I be grateful this is happening during my peek earning years and not when I am nearing retirement?  Does it really matter since having the hunch does not mean I acted on it?  I didn't buy gold and bury it the backyard.  I didn't eliminate credit card debt or pay off my home mortgage in advance of the storm.  It was in the end only a hunch.  Most of my hunches don't pan out.

Hunch #3 I thought the odds were pretty good that the Illinois Governor was going to court.  Having lived in Illinois I suspect I was not alone in having that hunch.  It's kind of a tradition here.

Hunch #4 More than 20 years ago I listened to my 5th grade elementary school teacher (in 80' - 81') sketch out this whole global warming thing and it made sense then.  It has been making sense for decades, not months or years, and our leaders have turned a blind eye towards it for most of that time.  My hunch here has been (and will continue to be) that we will not seriously attempt to turn down the global heat on global warming until the urban centers of major Western nations starts taking on water from ice melt.  It will of course be too late to reverse the worst effects by then but that is just how we humans roll.

Hunch #5 (Final Hunch) I have suspected that new media was going to claim some old media victims and I think that the days of reckoning are upon us.  Unlike some I don't fear what comes next.  The daily newspapers and big network television news divisions have long since stopped delivering substantial cultural contributions.  Something new will form and eventually it will be 60% positive and 40% negative like the newspapers and major networks used to be.  Of course, in the interim period something terrible could emerge to fill the vacuum... in which case I will fear what comes next but I can only handle a couple of global calamities at a time and this one is still hypothetical.

A sampling of some of my failed hunches:

• I thought David Lee Roth could sustain his solo career.
• I thought bottled water was a silly idea with no potential.
• I thought online stores would kill off brick and mortar stores. (The jury is still out on that one.)
• I thought telecommuting would become much more popular than it has so far.
• I thought that cable channels dedicated to narrow niches like food, golf and the home would quickly fail.

An Argument for Public Transportation

An Early Round of 2009 Predictions

Before the predictions a brief word about the election. I believe this country has a way of picking the leader it needs at times of major crisis. From Lincoln at a time of grave division to Roosevelt at a time of ultimate peril. I believe while it is too soon to compare this man to those historical figures, the selection of Obama is game changing and this country will be well served by his vision. Beyond the rational cause for celebration I find his selection to be enormously good for the countries morale.  This is good because if my predictions are correct we will need that boost and more to get through what we are facing.

And here are my 2009 predictions in no specific order:

1. The economic trouble we are facing will deepen in ways we don't yet understand. I suspect the dollar is going to collapse. The impact of that collapse will touch a broad swath of both the middle and upper classes.
2. Obama will have enourmous leeway to push major initiatives through and he will succeed in getting many of them implemented. My guess is that he will get major health care reform, a giant public works/infrastructure stimulus package and drastic environmental reform.
3. The government will likely have to step in and suspend all home foreclosures for 12-24 months, freeze repayment of student loans and one or two other unheard of federal controls to keep the downturn from accelerating.
4. The U.S. will be forced to speed up withdrawal from Iraq to bolster troops in Afghanistan.
5. The DOW will close out 2009 below 7,000. If I had to guess I would call 6,800 a distinct possibility.
   

Election Fatigue?

Type the phrase "election fatigue" into Google and you get 1.92 million hits. I hear talk of election fatigue but I can't join in on this particular meme. The candidates are likely exhausted after months and months of endless travel and speechifying but as a citizen I have been waiting my entire adult life for the opportunity to cast a consequential vote for a leader that inspires.

When this election cycle ends and our electoral choices return to the mediocre vs. the crass, most of us will long for an election cycle like this one. This campaign has been so riveting and important that it didn't just wear out the candidates but apparently some of the citizens as well. As for me, I have cast votes for candidates like Dukakis, so having an election like this has been phenomenal. I'm not tired, I am hungry for more.

America Cares

I am never again going to listen to news commentators that tell me that we are an apathetic nation. That the young, the poor and the middle class can't be bothered to vote.

I stood in line this past Thursday for 2 hours with some young folks, poor folks and middle class folks to cast my vote early. The line moved slowly as some of the older voters struggled to master the touch screen ballot and because of the limited number of machines. Regardless the people in the long line that snaked through the Parks and Rec building stayed put and made small talk with their neighbors. They weren't talking politics or calling each other un-American either.

It turns out that in order to get this sort of response you need several things to happen. You need a remarkable candidate that bothers to talk to the young, the poor and the middle class the same way when the camera is turned on or off. Then you need a situation where the stakes are not manufactured (made up issues: flag burning, Willie Horton, swift boats, etc.) but instead real (involvement in 2 wars, tanking economy, damaged ecology, broken health care system, etc.).

It helps if you put the citizens through 8 years of broken promises, pointless fear and diminished opportunity.

Rock the Vote Indeed!

Lost?

As a fan of the television show "Lost" I wonder if the show will adapt to the changing times. The show was so perfect for America in 2004 coming as it did on the heels of September 11th. It opened with the cast and by proxy the audience being put threw a horrific plane crash. They arrive on an island searching for a leader and scared of the darkness that surrounds them. If that sounds eerily familiar it might have something to do with the last 6 years of the Bush presidency. Not to get all political but if the election next week goes the way I hope it does, we will in a sense be less lost. Most of us will be no less concerned by the state of the world but suddenly reassured that an adult has taken the wheel.

I will still watch the show and it will no doubt continue to dazzle me but I suspect on some level I will feel a little less connected to the characters. A little less lost.

It Gets Worse Before It Gets Better... Redux

I had an odd experience today at work and I thought I would share it.

I was at my client company sitting in my guest cube working on something.  My guest cube sits in a vast cube farm filled with admins, marketing managers, directors, VP's and SR VP's.  Anyway around 3:30 pm I hear audible (break my concentration) groans from one aisle over.  On the aisle on the other side of me I hear a middle aged man saying loudly that he's "going to go downstairs and get ice cream who's coming."  No it wasn't an overworked drone or Jerry Maguire declaring his independence from the man.  It was a forty or fifty something VP and he was not talking about his work.  "I've had it" he said.  A co-worker proceeded to join him.  As they walked away they were talking loudly with disgust about the stock market.  In a cube next to mine some twenty somethings in a more conversational tone said that the market is tanking again.  "Do you think China is laughing?" says one.  "Nope their next." says the other.  Within 5 minutes it seemed like most of the floor was talking in water cooler fashion about the stock market and its nose dive.  Confusion and not a little fear seemed to be the subtext of these discussions.  I am not sure if the VP's outburst triggered this socializing, but I definitely had the sense that everyone was checking their 401k every fifteen minutes and the pressure was building all afternoon.  In some ways the spontaneous communal commiserating had echoes of 9/11.  On an ordinary day, on a floor where the big shots and the worker bees sit together these sorts of spontaneous outbursts of shared anxiety are not typical.

Since my last post the market is down several thousand points and many major banks have folded or been acquired on the cheap.

So now I ask... does it get worse before it gets better?
I hope not.